Sunday, April 09, 2006

Why Global Warming Is Bunk

Prof Bob Carter, a geologist doing paleoclimate research at James Cook University, Queensland, Australia, sums up climate change:

"The essence of the issue is this. Climate changes naturally all the time, partly in predictable cycles, and partly in unpredictable shorter rhythms and rapid episodic shifts, some of the causes of which remain unknown. We are fortunate that our modern societies have developed during the last 10,000 years of benignly warm, interglacial climate. But for more than 90 per cent of the last two million years, the climate has been colder, and generally much colder, than today. The reality of the climate record is that a sudden natural cooling is far more to be feared, and will do infinitely more social and economic damage, than the late 20th century phase of gentle warming."

Professor Carter points out the embarassing fact for the global warming alarmist cult that the Earth stopped warming in 1998, contrary to their famous hockey-stick prediction that a global heat wave would melt the ice caps and wash us all away. The temperature graph has gone flat for the last eight years, contrary to the Chicken Little predictions of doom foisted on a gullible public by the liberal media.

In fact, the global temperature trend was erratic in the 20th century. The Earth's temperature rose from 1918 to 1940, then inexplicably fell from 1940 to 1965, kicking off the global cooling scare at the same time humans were doing all that industrialization the current crop of loonies claim heat the planet. The Earth's temperature heated back up from 1970 to 1998, which led the global cooling fruitcases to do an about face and claim global warming was now the threat. Now the temperature is plateaued, perhaps signalling another cooling spell.

If the production of greenhouse gases by humans drove the temperature of the planet, you would expect the temperature to track with increasing industrialization, but it doesn't. What does drive the Earth's temperature is the Sun and its cycles, particulary it's eleven year solar flare cycles. In fact, the Earth's temperature tracks the Sun cycles very closely, as scientists studying the Earth's temperature have found:
"Using ancient tree rings, they show that 17 out of 19 warm spells in the last 10,000 years coincided with peaks in solar activity."
However, it's doubtful that the global warmists will let science get in the way of their political program. After all, global warming is not about the facts, it's about promoting socialism by other means.

10 Comments:

Blogger Ben B. said...

I can't say I'm an expert on the subject, but I guess this makes some sense to me. I'm really more worried about the world running out of oil than global warming.

Sun Apr 09, 03:10:00 PM 2006  
Blogger GoonDesert3061 said...

WAAYY back when ... about a year or so ago ... there was this great big whoha over one, if not THE, cornerstone/foundation study within the Global Warming ... discusions.

This was the study that showed a 'hocky stick' jump in warming trends, heat retention gases, etc. or some such.

The big whoha was that a few someones went back to the study and went over it with a fine tooth combe, correct math text, and a text on how to construct a study.

IIRC, it seems that in doing so they found ... issues with conclusions that worked out in the math and what the study said.

THEREFORE, they concluded that there would be issues that related to every study that followed on GW that used this as a foundation for the follow-on studies.

After that, nothing. No follow-on, no retraction that they made a mistake in there math, no coments from the people that did the follow-on studies in GW that used that as a foundation study.

Just ... nothing.

Any idea what happened?

Mon Apr 10, 10:59:00 AM 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How about thinking critically about the things you wish were true? Check out this critique of the Carter article.

Tue Apr 11, 12:58:00 PM 2006  
Blogger Tantor said...

How about not coming across as another lefty pompous ass?

The temperature chart in your supposedly brilliant rebuttal goes back only to 1900, which is supposedly to track an upward trend due to industrialization. Had you tracked it further back you would have seen that this is part of an ongoing warming trend that began at the end of the Little Ice Age. If you check out this temp chart you will see that this warming trend started in 1600. Are you claiming that industrialization in 1600 on is causing global warming? That would be pretty stupid, wouldn't it?

What you have done is cook your stats by taking out a subsection of the data, correlating it to something (industrialization) that happenned for only the tail end of the larger trend, and made the bogus assertion that it was responsible for that trend. You are simply lying with statistics, as the global warmers are prone to do to prop up their myths. You're not thinking critically about anything, but simply uncritically parroting global warming dogma.

The temperature of the Earth is primarily determined by the Sun, secondarily determined by the heat contained within its core, which is a distant second cause. The effect of man on the Earth's temperature is trivial.

Tue Apr 11, 02:36:00 PM 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good post. I'm linking to it because the subject matter is interesting, and I like what you have done with it.

One of the classic definitions of junk science is to assume that correlation equals causation. We were told not to do that in our freshman science classes in college in the '80s. But that was before PC hit full force.

Also, do you remember being told in the '70s that another Ice Age was coming, or am I just suffering from false memory syndrome?

Sun Jan 14, 10:49:00 PM 2007  
Anonymous Tor Hansson said...

Where do I find corroboration that these average temperature measurements have not risen since 1998? That sounds interesting.

Thu May 17, 01:37:00 AM 2007  
Blogger Tantor said...

Tor,

You can probably just google it. I've been reading articles for the last couple years that say that the temperature has plateaued.

However, that doesn't prove the case that there is no global warming, which does not proceed smoothly but rather erratically. For example, there is a warming trend over four centuries but there was a cooling spell in the 1970s.

It appears to me that the Earth is warming as part of its natural cycle. What I dispute is that humans are causing that warming.

Thu May 17, 08:00:00 AM 2007  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The temperature chart in your supposedly brilliant rebuttal goes back only to 1900, which is supposedly to track an upward trend due to industrialization. Had you tracked it further back you would have seen that this is part of an ongoing warming trend that began at the end of the Little Ice Age. If you check out this temp chart you will see that this warming trend started in 1600. Are you claiming that industrialization in 1600 on is causing global warming? That would be pretty stupid, wouldn't it?"

Look at the graph you yourself linked. Notice how it begins to spike like crazy around 1900?

Wed Aug 15, 12:35:00 PM 2007  
Blogger Tantor said...

That crazy "spike" of yours at 1900 is one tenth of a degree. The whole twentieth century "spike" is three tenths of a degree. This is the kind of overgeneralizing that global warming doomsday cultists must do to make their bogus case. You are literally making a mountain out of a molehill.

I might also point out that such a temperature variation is well within the natural cycle of the Earth. Calling a three tenths degree warming proof of global warming is like noticing the Earth gets warmer during the day and calling that proof of global warming.

Wed Aug 15, 05:58:00 PM 2007  
Anonymous viagra online said...

we can not know what is gonna happen with the global warming in a future, but probably this issue continues affecting all of us.

Thu Jul 15, 02:46:00 PM 2010  

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