Bombs Away Over Iran in 2007
Terrence Henry, in his article "Bombing Iran" in the April edition of The Atlantic Monthly gives the odds of going to war with Iran as calculated by tradesports.com:
4 to 1 odds against an air strike by the US or Israel by June 30, 2006. It's election year in both countries. Too risky for politicians.
3 to 1 odds against an air strike by the US or Israel by December 31, 2006. The elections are over but sanctions and democracy have not had time to dig in yet.
2 to 1 odds against an air strike by March 31, 2007. If the Iranians don't halt their progress toward developing a nuke, the political window for military action begins to open after the first quarter of the year. Strikes on essential facilities of the Iranian development program begin to become possible.
Bottom line: War with Iran next year. I'm not looking forward to it.
4 to 1 odds against an air strike by the US or Israel by June 30, 2006. It's election year in both countries. Too risky for politicians.
3 to 1 odds against an air strike by the US or Israel by December 31, 2006. The elections are over but sanctions and democracy have not had time to dig in yet.
2 to 1 odds against an air strike by March 31, 2007. If the Iranians don't halt their progress toward developing a nuke, the political window for military action begins to open after the first quarter of the year. Strikes on essential facilities of the Iranian development program begin to become possible.
Bottom line: War with Iran next year. I'm not looking forward to it.
posted by Steverino at 4:39 PM
14 Comments:
No one wants to go to "war" with Iran but what choice does anyone have? The Iranian regime is not only a known menace to the region but is a threat to the world that openly sponsors terrorism. Then mix into its hands the Nuclear issue and the threat is one that cannot be ignored.
Question is Steve are you ready to be reactivated?
When the military is forced to reach far down to the bottom of the barrel and reactivate broken-down old guys like me to defend the nation, then you know that America is truly in deadly peril.
I somehow think Steve you're not as broken down as you say! Flying isn't that tough!
check this guy out.http://aguyinthearmy.blogspot.com/
Flying is easy in an airliner where they carry you around like a precious egg, guarding you against every shock and flying in the center of the envelope. Flying in a fighter is very aggressive flying at the edge of the flight envelope, where you are always under G in an air to air combat. When you are loaded up with 5 Gs in a turn, you need to take your left hand to hold your right elbow so that you can get your right hand under your chin so that you can lift it up off your chest to look out the canopy. It's easy to gray out, even pass out if you turn your head just the wrong way so that the nerves in your neck are pinched. It's pretty common to sprain your fingers and hands when they slip off the handholds in the cockpit. Also, it's generally hot under the canopy, which acts like a greenhouse. And generally you are engaged in intense mental activity during the heart of the fight.
Heck, I can hardly stand to go on a roller coaster anymore, let alone climb in a fighter cockpit. And I assure you, I feel pretty broken down these days.
I will of course defer to your knowledge on flying fighters.
I prefer the gentle turns in a Cessna at 5500 feet and look forward to doing it again and again. I would love to strap myself in and take 5g's. To me that must be a BLAST or landing and doing the tamalee on an aircraft carrier.
I'm not looking forward to military action either, Tantor. They've hidden things too well for us to get it all, and it would inflame the region. Like we need more problems in Iraq now.
That said, as things are going now I don't see any other outcome either.
Tom,
I think we're screwed. I think the Iranians are even more screwed. There was an article about war gaming an air campaign against Iran some months back in The Atlantic, I think. There are 300 possible sites. However, I also read some Israeli military say they don't have to take out every site, just the few bottlenecks in the nuke program that could delay bomb production for five years. That makes it look do-able.
What that means to me is Iranian suicide bombers riding the DC Metro to work with me and the military sons of some of my friends coming home to America in a box.
Cerebralwaste,
Flying in a Cessna 150 is a lot more fun than flying fighters, where you have to stay mentally far ahead of the jet. You can afford to make mistakes in the Cessna, where the safety margin is great. Plus the Cessna is slow enough that you can actually see things. It's slow enough so that birds get out of your way. In an F-4 flying over the Everglades, birds are terrifying - little distant upside-down Ws that suddenly whoosh by your side as turkey vultures with six foot wingspans.
Tantor old buddy its nice to hear your comment that we are overstreched. With some of your comments at Mahmoods I sometimes wondered if you hadnt pulled to many G's to long. Looks like theres hope for you yet.
billT
billT,
I don't think that we are overstretched, though there is certainly a fair amount on the military's plate these days. My first concern is all the good guys who would get torn up. I've met a few of them over at Walter Reed and it tears me up to see it.
What worries me is the tendency to attract unwanted wars, the more wars you enter. For example, we declare war on Japan after Pearl Harbor and the next thing you know Germany declares war on us and we're sending the bulk of our troops to Europe to fight. As our military reserves are committed to combat, it makes it more likely that other threats will decide the time is ripe to make war on us while we are distracted. If we become heavily engaged in Iraq and Iran with forces also in Afghanistan and the Balkans, maybe North Korea will decide this is its best shot at conquering South Korea. Maybe China will decide now is the time to take Taiwan.
I'd prefer one war at a time, if we must have a war at all.
I was thinkng that China would wait until after the 2008 Olympics to make their move (so as not to provoke a boycott), but you make a good point. After all, according to some Naval War College papers I read, there's a technological window of opportunity for the PRC that exists between 2005 and 2008. After that, our capabilities grow exponentially with the introduction of weapons like the F-22 Raptor, F-25 JSF, and Virginia class subs.
Hmmm. That's interesting. I wouldn't have guessed that Chinese military technology would be better than American in any way.
The main Chinese military weakness has been its inability to project power beyond its borders. Mounting an invasion of Taiwan would be a strain on its capability. That's one of the reasons for the not so covert military buildup that's been going on.
Aside from the technology, China has a training problem, just like most Third World countries. My experience and reading is that outside the Anglophone countries, foreign militaries don't train realistically nor well nor enough. Even if we gave China F-22s to fly against us, we'd beat them on training.
I don't think from an economic standpoint China can afford a war/invasion of Taiwan. Posturing yes. Invasion doubtful. I just don't see the upside, but that is me.
A war with Iran will brake the U.S. and brake the global economy. Take it or leave it. There is no proof whatsoever that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, which is more than can be said about the U.S., U.K., and Israel. Most the world has supported Iran in the issue to date. When American officials say international community they are flat out lying. NAM, a bloc of 114 countries (the biggest national grouping after the UN) has openly supported Iran, the OIC has openly supported Iran, the SCO has shown reserved support for Iran, the Arb League has shown its support for Iran, and the African Union has shown its support for Iran---not to mention Iran's neighbours and the Middle East. To me personally the U.S. is a rogue state not Iran. Iran is not occupying other peoples are killing civilins on mass or ignoring international law, but the U.S. is doing this on a daily basis. Most people are blind, but there is a New Iron Curtain, just study all the locations of American bases around the world. They are circling around Russia, China, Iran, and India. All those bases for what? How come it is alright for the U.S. to develop nuclear weapons and military hardware, but not others?! FYI: Opium is being allowed under American occupation to sprout up again in Afganistan. Ask yourselves why? Guess who imports it? the U.S. government. Oh, yes. Guess how many of the Directors of the CIA came from Wallstreet jobs? The accusations against Iran are just that accusations, which have sinister motives for plundering another nations valuable resources. Iran, will be one bridge to far.
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